← Wallets
+$3,000No · avg 31¢ → 46¢ · $9,200−$1,144Yes · avg 18¢ → 10¢ · $1,602−$883Yes · avg 18¢ → 10¢ · $1,195−$550Yes · avg 17¢ → 12¢ · $1,150 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$5,112Yes · avg 23¢ → 2.8¢ · $688−$16Yes · avg 15¢ → 14¢ · $462−$964Yes · avg 8.6¢ → 2.2¢ · $339+$1No · avg 62¢ → 62¢ · $171
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did +7.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.1 pts
Called / graded
6/11
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$391.1k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$354k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 7¢) and the edge is -1.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 10% · n=2
20–40¢
50% vs 31% · n=2
40–60¢
67% vs 52% · n=3
60–80¢
25% vs 71% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$695.1k
Last 30 days −$427.0k · $22.90M volume · 29,963 trades · since Jan 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.84M
Open P&L · 160 positions
−$1.66M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1024d
1697 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | +93.0 pts |
| Sports | 10 | 5 | 5.2 | -1.5 pts |
History
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