← Wallets
+$19.3kYes · avg 87¢ → 94.5¢ · $247.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$3,040No · avg 85¢ → 94¢ · $32.9k−$416Yes · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $29.3k−$4,240Yes · avg 47¢ → 36¢ · $15.0k−$11.5kYes · avg 46¢ → 15¢ · $5,680−$258Yes · avg 75¢ → 70¢ · $4,157+$235Yes · avg 53¢ → 57¢ · $3,162−$202Yes · avg 65¢ → 61¢ · $2,928
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 6.6 wins, so it did +27.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +18.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Not No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+27.0 pts
Called / graded
9/9
Expected from price
6.6
Flagged volume
$884.5k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$479k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? at 3¢) and the edge is +18.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 3% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$351.2k
Last 30 days +$12.7k · $18.48M volume · 12,835 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$341.5k
Open P&L · 10 positions
+$4,252
Closed-position win rate
76%
362 closed
Wallet age · markets
863d
356 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | +96.5 pts |
| Economy | 8 | 8 | 6.5 | +18.3 pts |
History
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