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dromedaryy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +16.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?+$17.8kNo · avg 67¢ → 72¢ · $240.2k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$4,918No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $119.6k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?+$3,081Yes · avg 8.1¢ → 8.5¢ · $63.4k · 0 proven with, 1 againstWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$1,438No · avg 92.5¢ → 97¢ · $31.3kWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$2,217Yes · avg 18¢ → 16¢ · $30.4k · 0 proven with, 1 againstWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$4,108No · avg 19¢ → 16¢ · $24.8kWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?+$357Yes · avg 17¢ → 18¢ · $24.7kWill the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?+$194Yes · avg 62¢ → 62¢ · $24.2k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Not Yes · Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+16.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$482.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$484.8k
Last 30 days +$454.5k · $9.45M volume · 4,771 trades · since Aug 14, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$609.0k
Open P&L · 85 positions
−$154.6k
Closed-position win rate
66%
50 closed
Wallet age · markets
72d
114 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics110.8+16.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?LOW BUY No @ 29¢ $13.7k29% 1h agopending
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ $23.9k35% 23h agopending
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?LOW SELL Yes @ 9¢ $17.4k91% 1d agopending
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $18.1k62% 2d agopending
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $20.2k76% 3d agopending
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $75.6k
3.4× usual
97% 34d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ $15.8k83% 34d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 24¢ $12.6k24% 35d agomissed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $43.0k74% 35d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?MED BUY No @ 20¢ $31.8k20% 35d agomissed
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $51.3k
2.3× usual
83% 35d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ $158.8k
7.2× usual
78% 36d agocalled
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?pending
BUY No @ 29¢$13.7k
LOW dromedaryy · 1h ago
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?pending
SELL Yes @ 65¢$23.9k
LOW dromedaryy · 23h ago
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?pending
SELL Yes @ 9¢$17.4k
LOW dromedaryy · 1d ago
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?pending
BUY Yes @ 62¢$18.1k
LOW dromedaryy · 2d ago
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?pending
BUY Yes @ 76¢$20.2k
LOW dromedaryy · 3d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 97¢$75.6k
LOW dromedaryy · 34d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 83¢$15.8k
LOW dromedaryy · 34d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed
BUY No @ 24¢$12.6k
LOW dromedaryy · 35d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 74¢$43.0k
LOW dromedaryy · 35d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed
BUY No @ 20¢$31.8k
MED dromedaryy · 35d ago
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY No @ 83¢$51.3k
LOW dromedaryy · 35d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 78¢$158.8k
MED dromedaryy · 36d ago

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