Weekly report card
Week 2026-21
May 18, 00:00 EDT – May 24, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-3.5 pts
Called
119/233
Expected from price
127.2
Std. error
±2.9
In week 2026-21, 233 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 119 times; entry prices implied 127.2. Whales did no better than the price (-3.5 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 147 | 83 | 82.5 | +0.3 pts |
| Other | 86 | 36 | 44.7 | -10.1 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
called154d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
SELLYes@ 96.9¢→No
$14.3k · ProfShenanigerimplied 3%
called154d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
SELLYes@ 96.3¢→No
$12.2k · 0x09d2…26aeimplied 4%
called154d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
SELLYes@ 94.6¢→No
$20.4k · pretttttyboiiiimplied 5%
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $2.14M 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $2.00M 2.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $897.3k | missed |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $571.6k | called |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $549.1k | called |
 Cavaliers vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $377.6k 7.7× usual |
called |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $276.7k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | HIGH BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $261.6k 5.3× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 55¢ | $253.9k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | HIGH BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $248.5k 5.1× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $221.2k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $195.4k 7.9× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $152.1k 6.0× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $134.0k | missed |
 Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $129.8k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $126.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $121.1k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $110.8k 5.2× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $106.6k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $105.0k 3.4× usual |
missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $101.7k | missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | MED BUY No @ 41¢ | $100.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 32¢ | $96.0k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $95.2k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | MED BUY Under @ 51¢ | $93.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $89.6k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED SELL No @ 81¢ | $81.0k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | MED BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $69.5k 3.5× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $68.1k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 31¢ | $55.1k | missed |
 Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 6¢ | $53.7k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 65¢ | $52.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $52.2k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $51.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $51.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Thunder @ 46¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $50.0k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $50.0k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Knicks @ 46¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $46.8k | called |
 Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $46.8k | missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | LOW SELL No @ 39¢ | $46.3k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $45.5k | called |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢ | $44.7k | called |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 52¢ | $44.0k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $43.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $42.9k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 51¢ | $42.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $40.8k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $40.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $39.2k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $39.0k 2.5× usual |
missed |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | MED BUY Yes @ 90.5¢ | $37.4k | missed |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $37.2k | called |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | MED SELL No @ 70¢ | $37.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $36.7k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $36.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $36.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $36.2k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 43¢ | $36.0k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 67¢ | $35.9k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 53¢ | $35.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 43¢ | $34.7k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90.8¢ | $34.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 67¢ | $33.5k | missed |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $31.5k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $31.2k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 32¢ | $31.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $30.7k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $30.2k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 36¢ | $30.1k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 52¢ | $29.2k | called |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $28.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93.5¢ | $28.1k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $27.7k | missed |
| Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $27.5k | missed |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $27.1k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $26.7k | missed |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $26.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY T1 @ 91¢ | $26.0k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 49¢ | $24.9k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 31¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $24.4k | called |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $24.2k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ | $23.7k | called |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | LOW SELL No @ 64¢ | $23.5k | missed |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $23.5k | called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Knicks @ 44¢ | $23.1k | missed |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | LOW SELL No @ 68¢ | $22.9k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $21.8k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $21.6k | called |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ | $21.4k | called |
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