204

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -58.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-58.4 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.6

Flagged volume

$234.8k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$28.1k

Last 30 days +$255 · $2.25M volume · 320 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$27.8k

Open P&L · 3 positions

−$300

Closed-position win rate

81%

232 closed

Wallet age · markets

—

235 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.6	-58.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$25.0k	58%	187d ago	missed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢	$15.3k	75%	192d ago	missed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢	$12.6k	23%	193d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	MED SELL Yes @ 98¢	$109.2k 4.6× usual	2%	194d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$34.7k	1%	194d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$24.0k	67%	208d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$14.0k	67%	209d ago	called

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?missed

BUY Yes @ 58¢$25.0k

LOW 204 · 187d ago

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?missed

SELL Yes @ 25¢$15.3k

LOW 204 · 192d ago

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?called

BUY Yes @ 23¢$12.6k

LOW 204 · 193d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98¢$109.2k

MED 204 · 194d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded

SELL No @ 99¢$34.7k

LOW 204 · 194d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 67¢$24.0k

LOW 204 · 208d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 67¢$14.0k

LOW 204 · 209d ago

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