← Wallets
+$13.1kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $35.3k+$981No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $30.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$600Yes · avg 65¢ → 64¢ · $25.4k−$800No · avg 65¢ → 63¢ · $25.2k+$354Yes · avg 66¢ → 68¢ · $15.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$13.1kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $9,135−$1,100Yes · avg 54¢ → 47¢ · $7,050−$1,148No · avg 54¢ → 47¢ · $6,998
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +3.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -7.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.0 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$156.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$4k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russ at 56¢) and the edge is -7.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 56% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=2
80–100¢
50% vs 92% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$155.9k
Last 30 days +$329 · $6.54M volume · 14,003 trades · since Dec 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$387.3k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$85.2k
Closed-position win rate
58%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
676d
537 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | +36.5 pts |
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -19.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $28.2k | called |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | MED BUY Yes @ 90.5¢ | $37.4k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $25.6k | called |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.4¢ | $15.8k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $22.5k | called |
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