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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -21.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-21.7 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$54.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$24.5k
Last 30 days −$0 · $3.91M volume · 5,073 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$383.9k
Open P&L · 101 positions
−$402.0k
Closed-position win rate
86%
74 closed
Wallet age · markets
487d
171 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -76.6 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $31.5k 2.7× usual |
missed |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ | $11.8k | called |
 Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $11.5k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x827fbf…