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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -57.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-57.9 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$365.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$121.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.45M volume · 134 trades · since Mar 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$31.4k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$150.9k
Closed-position win rate
67%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
209d
21 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -65.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -50.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $74.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $39.6k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 27¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 30¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | MED SELL Cavaliers @ 95.1¢ | $45.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 41¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $88.9k 2.2× usual |
missed |
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