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+$9,561Yes · avg 2.9¢ → 73¢ · $9,955
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did -39.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-39.7 pts
Called / graded
2/8
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$299.2k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$117k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spurs vs. Knicks at 54¢) and the edge is -52.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
33% vs 54% · n=3
60–80¢
0% vs 67% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$370.9k
Last 30 days −$2,795 · $14.44M volume · 28,168 trades · since Mar 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.90M
Open P&L · 222 positions
−$708.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
223d
1403 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 2 | 5.2 | -39.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $12.1k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $16.8k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $24.9k | called |
 Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong | LOW BUY Karen Khachanov @ 72¢ | $19.6k | missed |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $18.0k | called |
| Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | LOW BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 62¢ | $27.9k | missed |
 Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $11.8k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 56¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 67¢ | $33.5k | missed |
 Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $25.6k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY No @ 66¢ | $10.9k | missed |
| Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 92¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
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