Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$504
Return on staked
-62.9%
Bets
2/8 won
Edge vs price
-39.7 pts ±16.4
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 15, 04:23 EDTJun 10, 15:03 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 54¢ | called | 136d ago |
| Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong | 72¢ | missed | 148d ago |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 90¢ | called | 148d ago |
| Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | 62¢ | missed | 149d ago |
| Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | 51¢ | missed | 154d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 67¢ | missed | 159d ago |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | 56¢ | missed | 160d ago |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | 66¢ | missed | 162d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.