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+$2,114Yes · avg 87¢ → 98.3¢ · $18.4k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.6 wins, so it did +17.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +12.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+17.8 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
5.6
Flagged volume
$2.55M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$155k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Thunder vs. Spurs at 47¢) and the edge is +12.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 54% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 65% · n=2
80–100¢
67% vs 88% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$456.4k
Last 30 days +$518 · $21.57M volume · 9,079 trades · since Sep 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.56M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$22.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
391d
851 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 7 | 5.6 | +17.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $69.1k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
 Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider | LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 89¢ | $51.5k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 96.3¢ | $162.0k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 91¢ | $248.8k 9.8× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 61¢ | $61.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
 Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 96.1¢ | $240.2k 9.5× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $52.2k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 57¢ | $61.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 90¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $152.1k 6.0× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $38.1k | called |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 87¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina | MED BUY Elena Rybakina @ 89¢ | $27.7k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $23.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Thunder @ 99¢ | $127.7k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Thunder @ 88¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 41¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 80¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $59.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 91.2¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 90¢ | $54.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 96.4¢ | $89.4k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 80¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 96¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $42.0k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $130.2k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 88¢ | $40.6k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $61.3k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 92¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik | LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 91¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 97¢ | $34.4k | excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 98.5¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 93¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 97¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Clippers @ 83¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 67¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 98¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | MED BUY Lakers @ 89¢ | $52.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 99¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 94¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Rinderknech | LOW BUY Andrey Rublev @ 98.3¢ | $96.5k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 94¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 97.2¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 87¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
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