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Weekly report card

Week 2026-22

May 25, 00:00 EDT – May 31, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
-2.1 pts
Called
271/522
Expected from price
282.2
Std. error
±1.8

In week 2026-22, 522 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 271 times; entry prices implied 282.2. Whales did no better than the price (-2.1 pts). One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other417224226.5-0.6 pts
Sports1054755.7-8.3 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ $1.99M
2.3× usual
62% lovelystuff146d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY Yes @ 47¢ $1.62M
3.0× usual
47% shakendbake146d agomissed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY Yes @ 44¢ $1.55M44% lovelystuff146d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?HIGH BUY No @ 61¢ $1.09M61% lovelystuff147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 91.1¢ $1.02M
8.7× usual
91% 0x0f02…5bfb NEW149d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ $867.2k48% lovelystuff146d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 91.1¢ $744.0k
6.3× usual
91% 0x0f02…5bfb NEW147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 93.6¢ $721.2k
6.1× usual
94% 0x0f02…5bfb NEW149d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ $700.2k62% lovelystuff146d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?HIGH BUY No @ 61¢ $679.3k61% lovelystuff146d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY Yes @ 45¢ $650.0k45% lovelystuff146d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 83¢ $500.0k
2.6× usual
83% aekghas156d agocalled
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil TeichmannHIGH BUY Mirra Andreeva @ 89¢ $438.1k
3.5× usual
89% brightshieldd145d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 84¢ $431.2k
2.2× usual
84% aekghas154d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 91.5¢ $350.0k
3.0× usual
92% 0x0f02…5bfb NEW148d agocalled
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensHIGH BUY Hurricanes @ 57¢ $335.9k57% 0x4924…3782151d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 87¢ $300.0k87% aekghas151d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 83¢ $300.0k83% aekghas155d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 83¢ $300.0k83% aekghas155d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 88¢ $300.0k88% aekghas147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 78¢ $298.7k78% aekghas153d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ $284.1k
6.5× usual
42% Countryside147d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 77¢ $255.0k77% aekghas150d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 59¢ $239.6k59% aekghas153d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED SELL No @ 54¢ $207.9k
6.2× usual
46% UnderperformingForALivin146d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?MED BUY No @ 59¢ $206.5k59% MildredBK149d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 80¢ $201.8k80% aekghas155d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 69¢ $201.3k69% aekghas152d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 62¢ $200.0k
2.6× usual
62% AML184d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 90¢ $200.0k90% 0x0f02…5bfb NEW148d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ $193.5k43% MildredBK155d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 75¢ $193.4k75% aekghas154d agocalled
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY No @ 43¢ $188.3k
3.8× usual
43% ndb1 PROVEN147d agomissed
Thunder vs. SpursMED BUY Thunder @ 41¢ $177.0k41% loulou2148d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $169.2k88% aekghas148d agocalled
Thunder vs. SpursMED BUY Thunder @ 41¢ $164.0k41% Sassy-Bucket148d agomissed
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresMED BUY San Diego Padres @ 48¢ $152.3k
3.8× usual
48% bossoskil1151d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 89¢ $149.1k89% toto111 NEW163d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 60¢ $148.7k60% aekghas153d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?MED BUY No @ 93¢ $139.5k
3.8× usual
93% DonaldinhoTrumpito175d agocalled
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil TeichmannMED BUY Mirra Andreeva @ 90¢ $129.6k90% brightshieldd145d agocalled
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil TeichmannMED BUY Mirra Andreeva @ 90¢ $119.4k90% brightshieldd145d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ $117.4k
4.8× usual
39% cbbbbb146d agomissed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED SELL No @ 57¢ $117.3k
3.5× usual
43% UnderperformingForALivin147d agomissed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ $116.0k58% thegreatjeff151d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ $114.1k
2.4× usual
66% steeplejack153d agomissed
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Spurs @ 39¢ $107.8k
2.3× usual
39% SecondWindCapital150d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $107.2k
2.1× usual
91% makinta160d agocalled
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsMED BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 48¢ $106.2k
2.6× usual
48% bossoskil1146d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?MED BUY No @ 69¢ $103.4k69% aekghas153d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?HIGH SELL No @ 96.3¢ $101.4k4% timemachinee178d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ $97.5k
3.9× usual
39% sinasinner146d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $96.3k96% 0x19fc…b4e3178d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Spurs @ 38¢ $91.8k38% cowwaffle NEW151d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH BUY No @ 85¢ $89.3k85% 0x0f02…5bfb NEW147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 65¢ $88.9k
2.2× usual
65% Frommud164d agomissed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢ $87.1k59% 0xdf0e…5c89 NEW162d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY No @ 29¢ $83.2k29% ndb1 PROVEN146d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $80.0k87% makinta158d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY No @ 58¢ $76.2k58% cnyek147d agocalled
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED SELL Yes @ 79¢ $72.3k21% Putin228146d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 23¢ $71.4k
3.6× usual
77% Valen9152d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED SELL No @ 71¢ $71.0k29% 0x19fc…b4e3178d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?MED BUY No @ 59¢ $70.8k59% 0xe4d6…308a147d agocalled
Thunder vs. SpursMED BUY Spurs @ 59¢ $70.7k59% weflyhigh PROVEN149d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY Yes @ 28¢ $70.0k28% jdsahgf178d agomissed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY Yes @ 29¢ $69.1k29% jdsahgf177d agomissed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ $69.0k
3.3× usual
55% sirko133146d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ $67.3k
2.2× usual
4% horiz0n178d agomissed
Spurs vs. ThunderLOW BUY Spurs @ 42¢ $63.8k42% ThisAgain148d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?MED SELL No @ 90.5¢ $63.8k9% dvfnh151d agomissed
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 90.4¢ $62.9k
2.5× usual
90% lorry3122152d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 80¢ $62.2k80% Pajamapants150d agocalled
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $62.2k
3.0× usual
53% meoooow146d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ $61.9k
3.0× usual
39% 999ww146d agomissed
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 61¢ $61.0k
2.4× usual
61% 08AF150d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $60.7k60% taylorsversion147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?MED BUY No @ 90¢ $60.1k
2.0× usual
90% Batundi151d agocalled
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ $60.0k
2.4× usual
53% superbeter007146d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $60.0k
3.8× usual
88% Foxbat3795172d agocalled
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY No @ 53¢ $58.9k
3.1× usual
53% sbsigner146d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderLOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ $58.0k58% 0x3dfb…abaf148d agomissed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ $57.8k49% tubeyou146d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ $57.8k
3.1× usual
4% XAE12Archangel178d agomissed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $57.5k59% cnyek147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED SELL No @ 71¢ $55.8k29% 1512vutd178d agomissed
Spurs vs. ThunderLOW BUY Spurs @ 40¢ $55.2k40% surfandturf LOSING150d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $54.0k
2.2× usual
91% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 81¢ $51.6k81% 0xg304yj0176d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ $50.0k40% 0xbd14…d62a146d agomissed
Thunder vs. SpursLOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢ $50.0k
2.2× usual
41% balldontlieee148d agomissed
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 60¢ $50.0k60% AV23IUa PROVEN150d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderLOW BUY Thunder @ 61¢ $49.9k61% 0x594d…059d150d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ $49.0k41% blablawin NEW147d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $48.1k96% dfamsword178d agocalled
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersLOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 56¢ $47.9k56% 0xb6d6…be17147d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $47.6k95% Trump2028160d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $47.0k94% Erasmus. PROVEN193d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $45.1k
2.7× usual
96% pakukudolphi147d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderLOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ $44.0k
2.0× usual
58% PS003147d agomissed

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.