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dfamsword

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$500No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $16.3k
Price-adjusted edge
+3.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$99.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.1k
Last 30 days −$600 · $401.7k volume · 155 trades · since Apr 28, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$11.6k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$500
Closed-position win rate
89%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
179d
9 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other111.0+3.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $51.5k100% 143d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $48.1k96% 178d agocalled

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7d33a7…