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What this means. A wallet put $117.3k on not No, at a price that gave it a 43% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$117.3k
SELL No @ 57¢ · 205,783 shares
Size ≥ $100kEarly (>24h before close)3.5× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet UnderperformingForALivin took No (sell) for $117.3k at an average 57¢. At that price the market implied a 43% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $117.3k+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 57¢
- Implied odds
- 43.0%
- Size
- $117.3k
- Placed
- May 29, 13:43 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 18:09 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- UnderperformingForALivin
- Tx
- 0x30b06aea…
This wallet's graded record
7/13-3.4 pts
expected 7.4 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade -43 ptsNo price · entry 57¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $44.0k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $19.9k | missed |