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Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?called
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?called
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +2.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.5 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$11.05M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$254k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? at 61¢) and the edge is -3.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 46% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.80M
Last 30 days +$0 · $27.12M volume · 387 trades · since May 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6.34M
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$4.48M
Closed-position win rate
80%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
153d
9 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 2.5 | +38.7 pts |
| Other | 3 | 0 | 1.4 | -45.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | HIGH BUY No @ 63¢ | $2.71M 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $867.2k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ | $700.2k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ | $1.99M 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $650.0k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | HIGH BUY No @ 61¢ | $679.3k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $1.55M | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | HIGH BUY No @ 61¢ | $1.09M | called |
 Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $801.2k | excluded |
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?calledBUY No @ 62¢$700.2k
HIGH lovelystuff · 147d ago
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?calledBUY No @ 61¢$679.3k
HIGH lovelystuff · 147d ago
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