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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -39.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-39.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$252.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$67.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.03M volume · 186 trades · since Feb 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$54.8k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$121.2k
Closed-position win rate
73%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
611d
16 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -39.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $61.9k 3.0× usual |
missed |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | MED SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $39.2k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | MED SELL Yes @ 63¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $20.7k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ | $14.6k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $50.2k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb6e6bc…