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+$1,224No · avg 52¢ → 64¢ · $6,625+$3No · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $1,595−$5No · avg 88¢ → 88¢ · $916+$4No · avg 94¢ → 94.5¢ · $751−$10No · avg 37¢ → 36¢ · $739+$4No · avg 84¢ → 86¢ · $237−$3No · avg 46¢ → 44¢ · $83−$7No · avg 61¢ → 56¢ · $77
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 28. The prices it paid implied about 11.9 wins, so it did -3.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-3.4 pts over 28 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-3.4 pts
Called / graded
11/28
Expected from price
11.9
Flagged volume
$2.25M
Sample size28 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$14k28 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? at 34¢) and the edge is -5.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
25% vs 37% · n=12
40–60¢
47% vs 46% · n=15
60–80¢
100% vs 60% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$687.2k
Last 30 days −$153.7k · $77.35M volume · 99,574 trades · since Mar 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$13.69M
Open P&L · 27 positions
+$1,131
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
215d
6440 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 26 | 9 | 10.9 | -7.2 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | +47.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $25.1k | called |
 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY 49ers @ 72¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | MED BUY Texans @ 67¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 67¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | MED BUY Vikings @ 74¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | MED BUY Raiders @ 53¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 66¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | MED BUY Chiefs @ 76¢ | $52.1k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08? | MED BUY No @ 45¢ | $27.6k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? | LOW BUY No @ 34¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $36.9k | excluded |
 Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-23? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
 Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 62¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 43¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 74¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $27.4k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $14.0k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $31.8k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $38.4k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY No @ 27¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | MED BUY No @ 51¢ | $50.5k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $19.6k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY No @ 36¢ | $42.7k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $56.3k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $91.2k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY No @ 45¢ | $118.4k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $15.7k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $25.3k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $12.4k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $125.3k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 46¢ | $119.0k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $23.1k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $63.9k 3.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $25.8k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $32.4k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 46¢ | $49.4k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 46¢ | $52.2k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 34¢ | $51.8k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 34¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY No @ 34¢ | $54.6k 2.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $55.5k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 24¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY No @ 35¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY No @ 33¢ | $18.7k | missed |
| France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $13.3k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $13.7k | called |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $58.9k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 73¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? | LOW BUY No @ 34¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 63¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $14.9k | called |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $24.1k | missed |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
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