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+$428No · avg 50¢ → 68¢ · $1,651−$17No · avg 93¢ → 84¢ · $169−$1,714No · avg 60¢ → 3.8¢ · $116−$288Yes · avg 16¢ → 4.2¢ · $104−$28Yes · avg 2.5¢ → 1.8¢ · $72
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -31.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-31.0 pts
Called / graded
0/8
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$523.5k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$206k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? at 4¢) and the edge is -34.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=5
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$135.4k
Last 30 days +$272 · $11.54M volume · 3,539 trades · since Jul 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$290.0k
Open P&L · 73 positions
−$419.3k
Closed-position win rate
68%
133 closed
Wallet age · markets
473d
173 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 0 | 2.5 | -31.0 pts |
History
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