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What this means. A wallet put $41.7k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 44% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$41.7k
BUY Yes @ 44¢ · 95,854 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet horiz0n took Yes (buy) for $41.7k at an average 44¢. At that price the market implied a 44% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $41.7k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 44¢ means
44%chance the market gave
+130American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 44¢
- Implied odds
- 43.5%
- Size
- $41.7k
- Placed
- May 23, 23:17 EDT
- Market close
- May 25, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- horiz0n
- Tx
- 0x7d0bc9d1…
This wallet's graded record
0/8-31.0 pts
expected 2.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -44 ptsYes price · entry 44¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $76.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $21.6k | excluded |