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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 10.3 wins, so it did -57.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-57.6 pts
Called / graded
4/11
Expected from price
10.3
Flagged volume
$1.91M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$348k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? at 94¢) and the edge is -64.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
36% vs 94% · n=11
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$669.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.57M volume · 649 trades · since Jul 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$95.0k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$764.9k
Closed-position win rate
65%
57 closed
Wallet age · markets
830d
59 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 11 | 4 | 10.3 | -57.6 pts |
History
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