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+$1Yes · avg 37¢ → 40¢ · $8−$5No · avg 65¢ → 40¢ · $8
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -5.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-5.0 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$239.6k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5,193
Last 30 days −$484 · $1.54M volume · 1,723 trades · since Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1,335
Open P&L · 25 positions
−$112
Closed-position win rate
23%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
186d
441 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +23.8 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | -33.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 61¢ | $12.0k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 71¢ | $55.8k | missed |
 Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ | $82.9k | missed |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ | $77.9k | excluded |
 Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | LOW SELL Rockets @ 51¢ | $11.0k | called |
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