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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +4.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.8 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$10.30M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$4.1M7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? at 45¢) and the edge is -3.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 46% · n=4
60–80¢
0% vs 61% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5.54M
Last 30 days +$0 · $21.80M volume · 875 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.66M
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$9.09M
Closed-position win rate
100%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
164d
12 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +51.1 pts |
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.2 | -2.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | HIGH BUY No @ 40¢ | $277.5k | excluded |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $57.8k | called |
 Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $694.9k | excluded |
| Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $1.94M 2.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $2.14M 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $2.00M 2.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $897.3k | missed |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $1.59M 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $90.0k | called |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $168.8k | called |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $444.5k | called |
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