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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +24.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+24.9 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$188.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,463
Last 30 days −$3 · $8.33M volume · 12,764 trades · since Oct 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$641.0k
Open P&L · 36 positions
−$322.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
372d
1823 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +18.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +45.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $55.3k 2.7× usual |
called |
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $20.4k | called |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $69.0k 3.3× usual |
called |
 Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $21.0k | missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
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