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What this means. A wallet put $1.62M on Yes, at a price that gave it a 47% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$1.62M
BUY Yes @ 47¢ · 3,425,000 shares in 6 fills
Size ≥ $250k6 fills in 1h3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet shakendbake took Yes (buy) for $1.62M at an average 47¢. At that price the market implied a 47% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $1.62M+3
6 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 47¢ means
47%chance the market gave
+111American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 47¢
- Implied odds
- 47.4%
- Size
- $1.62M
- Placed
- May 30, 11:19 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 18:09 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- shakendbake
- Tx
- 0x159db6fb…
This wallet's graded record
3/6-5.9 pts
expected 3.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -47 ptsYes price · entry 47¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $44.0k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $19.9k | missed |