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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +9.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+9.6 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$234.9k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$23.4k
Last 30 days −$175 · $894.1k volume · 352 trades · since Apr 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1,785
Open P&L · 96 positions
−$20.7k
Closed-position win rate
72%
141 closed
Wallet age · markets
192d
237 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +9.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $16.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $16.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $16.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $60.0k 3.8× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 94.5¢ | $52.2k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $48.3k 3.0× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
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