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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -10.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-10.9 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$274.7k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$13k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11? at 46¢) and the edge is -21.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
60% vs 51% · n=5
60–80¢
0% vs 61% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$168.0k
Last 30 days −$9,766 · $1.32M volume · 218 trades · since May 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$246.9k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$407.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
154d
34 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 3 | 3.8 | -10.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $28.5k | called |
 Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $37.6k | called |
 Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 61¢ | $27.4k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 61¢ | $27.1k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $42.7k | missed |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $40.6k | missed |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | MED BUY No @ 59¢ | $70.8k | called |
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