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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 11.1 wins, so it did -0.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.5 pts
Called / graded
11/12
Expected from price
11.1
Flagged volume
$3.53M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$272k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? at 85¢) and the edge is -1.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
92% vs 92% · n=12
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$275.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.89M volume · 58 trades · since May 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$315.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$40.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
149d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 12 | 11 | 11.1 | -0.5 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0f0223…