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pakukudolphi

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.1 wins, so it did -28.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?+$1,736No · avg 89¢ → 95.5¢ · $25.5kIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+$416Yes · avg 83¢ → 84¢ · $25.0kWill Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?+$1,357No · avg 87¢ → 92.5¢ · $24.8kWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,717No · avg 67¢ → 72¢ · $23.8k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?−$858No · avg 90¢ → 86¢ · $18.3kWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?+$4,250No · avg 71¢ → 92¢ · $18.3kWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$400No · avg 83¢ → 80¢ · $12.0kIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?+$340No · avg 88¢ → 95¢ · $4,615
Price-adjusted edge
-28.5 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
3.1
Flagged volume
$556.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$144.8k
Last 30 days +$3,610 · $8.17M volume · 6,006 trades · since Jul 21, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$134.6k
Open P&L · 31 positions
+$7,469
Closed-position win rate
46%
295 closed
Wallet age · markets
461d
276 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other322.8-25.7 pts
Politics100.4-37.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $15.1k89% 15d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 87¢ $13.1k13% 16d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 94.1¢ $12.4k6% 24d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $20.0k88% 38d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $21.0k98% 81d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $10.2k3% 83d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $42.3k
2.6× usual
1% 90d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $17.5k1% 91d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $63.4k
3.8× usual
99% 92d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $15.4k77% 109d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $13.0k0% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢ $18.4k8% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $71.8k
4.3× usual
0% 138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $44.4k
2.7× usual
87% 146d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $45.1k
2.7× usual
96% 147d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $15.6k89% 149d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ $11.7k36% 150d agomissed
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 80¢ $10.0k80% 167d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ $12.6k37% 170d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $20.1k1% 186d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 26¢ $21.0k74% 198d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $10.4k92% 207d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?MED SELL No @ 92¢ $21.5k8% 214d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $10.3k91% 215d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?called
BUY No @ 89¢$15.1k
LOW pakukudolphi · 15d ago
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 87¢$13.1k
LOW pakukudolphi · 16d ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?missed
SELL Yes @ 94.1¢$12.4k
LOW pakukudolphi · 24d ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?called
BUY Yes @ 88¢$20.0k
LOW pakukudolphi · 38d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$21.0k
LOW pakukudolphi · 81d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 96.9¢$10.2k
LOW pakukudolphi · 83d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$42.3k
LOW pakukudolphi · 90d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$17.5k
LOW pakukudolphi · 91d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$63.4k
LOW pakukudolphi · 92d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 77¢$15.4k
LOW pakukudolphi · 109d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$13.0k
LOW pakukudolphi · 128d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 92¢$18.4k
LOW pakukudolphi · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$71.8k
LOW pakukudolphi · 138d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?called
BUY No @ 87¢$44.4k
LOW pakukudolphi · 146d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 96¢$45.1k
LOW pakukudolphi · 147d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 89¢$15.6k
LOW pakukudolphi · 149d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?missed
BUY Yes @ 36¢$11.7k
LOW pakukudolphi · 150d ago
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)excluded
BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 80¢$10.0k
LOW pakukudolphi · 167d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 63¢$12.6k
LOW pakukudolphi · 170d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.6¢$20.1k
LOW pakukudolphi · 186d ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 26¢$21.0k
LOW pakukudolphi · 198d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?missed
BUY No @ 92¢$10.4k
LOW pakukudolphi · 207d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 92¢$21.5k
MED pakukudolphi · 214d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?called
BUY No @ 91¢$10.3k
LOW pakukudolphi · 215d ago

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