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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -4.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.3 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$947.2k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$99k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? at 61¢) and the edge is -11.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 17% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 85% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.45M
Last 30 days −$53.6k · $148.93M volume · 59,417 trades · since Jul 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$26.62M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$24.78M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1563d
2338 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.2 | -7.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | -19.5 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +15.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x37e472…