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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did -21.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-21.0 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$710.8k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$78k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Thunder vs. Spurs at 46¢) and the edge is -33.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 44% · n=2
60–80¢
25% vs 69% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 85% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$342.6k
Last 30 days −$118.1k · $25.60M volume · 15,012 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.02M
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$46.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
287d
1069 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 3 | 4.5 | -21.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik | LOW BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 65¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY FURIA @ 65¢ | $39.4k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY Vitality @ 57¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 70¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs | LOW BUY Spirit @ 79¢ | $10.5k | missed |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 60¢ | $13.5k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 46¢ | $13.2k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 64¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs | LOW SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs | LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 92¢ | $40.7k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs | LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 72¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B | LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 68¢ | $28.3k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Thunder @ 96¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Thunder @ 85¢ | $46.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 61¢ | $21.3k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 85¢ | $37.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 80¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 77¢ | $28.8k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 88¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev | LOW SELL Daniil Medvedev @ 99.9¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 77¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | LOW SELL Vitality @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | LOW BUY FURIA @ 75¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 85¢ | $11.0k | called |
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