AdrianCronauer

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did +12.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+12.6 pts

Called / graded

6/7

Expected from price

5.1

Flagged volume

$4.22M

Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$93k

7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 19¢) and the edge is +1.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

100% vs 19% · n=1

20–40¢

0% vs 30% · n=1

80–100¢

100% vs 93% · n=5

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$226.5k

Last 30 days +$0 · $17.50M volume · 8,214 trades · since Apr 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$15.0k	0%	145d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 98.7¢	$399.4k 14.8× usual	1%	145d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$28.3k	19%	145d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 88¢	$27.9k	12%	145d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED SELL No @ 70¢	$38.2k	30%	145d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	MED SELL No @ 99.7¢	$488.8k 18.1× usual	0%	145d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$10.1k	99%	145d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$84.6k 3.1× usual	98%	145d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢	$38.7k	97%	146d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$17.0k	85%	146d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$19.2k	96%	146d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 95¢	$19.0k	5%	146d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 76¢	$12.6k	24%	149d ago	missed
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢	$79.3k 2.9× usual	1%	150d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$156.1k 5.8× usual	98%	150d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$125.2k 4.6× usual	98%	150d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$13.7k	91%	152d ago	called
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$25.1k	11%	152d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢	$21.8k	97%	152d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢	$25.5k	94%	152d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 93.5¢	$25.1k	94%	152d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	MED BUY No @ 90.4¢	$47.4k	90%	152d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	MED BUY No @ 92.8¢	$42.5k	93%	153d ago	called
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$10.3k	76%	153d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$25.7k	86%	154d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢	$13.3k	95%	154d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$21.6k	96%	156d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93.5¢	$28.1k	94%	156d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢	$21.8k	98%	157d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$17.3k	96%	157d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$43.5k	97%	157d ago	called
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$13.1k	94%	158d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$23.0k	92%	159d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$99.7k 3.7× usual	100%	162d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$99.7k 3.7× usual	0%	162d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$92.4k 3.4× usual	0%	162d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$22.1k	92%	162d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 87¢	$103.2k 3.8× usual	87%	162d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$29.4k	92%	164d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$53.7k	98%	164d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$56.2k 2.1× usual	98%	165d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$35.1k	87%	167d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 84¢	$36.3k	16%	168d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$16.3k	74%	168d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 79¢	$18.7k	21%	169d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$21.7k	97%	169d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 66¢	$71.3k 2.6× usual	34%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 72¢	$94.4k 3.5× usual	28%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 52¢	$35.1k	48%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 58¢	$24.5k	42%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 68¢	$23.5k	32%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 87¢	$115.3k 4.3× usual	87%	170d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 93.9¢	$32.1k	94%	171d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$22.0k	88%	172d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$17.6k	86%	172d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$20.6k	85%	172d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$21.1k	94%	173d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	HIGH SELL No @ 92.4¢	$144.6k 5.4× usual	8%	173d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$25.5k	91%	175d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$23.8k	95%	175d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$47.0k	94%	175d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$42.3k	94%	176d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$34.0k	85%	177d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$15.5k	1%	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$23.0k	92%	177d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$14.2k	71%	178d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$64.3k 2.4× usual	0%	178d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$42.0k	84%	178d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$15.2k	91%	178d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢	$48.6k	3%	178d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	MED BUY No @ 96.6¢	$90.8k 3.4× usual	97%	178d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢	$24.5k	2%	178d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$15.1k	83%	179d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	MED BUY No @ 96.9¢	$26.2k	97%	179d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢	$49.2k	98%	179d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$10.7k	96%	180d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 97¢	$116.9k 4.3× usual	97%	181d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$43.5k	95%	182d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢	$64.5k 2.4× usual	97%	183d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$59.1k 2.2× usual	89%	183d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$15.3k	96%	184d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$20.5k	82%	184d ago	called

AdrianCronauer

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

By category

History

Share this record