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What this means. A wallet put $116.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 97% chance. It won. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$116.9k
BUY No @ 97¢ · 120,506 shares
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)4.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet AdrianCronauer took No (buy) for $116.9k at an average 97¢. At that price the market implied a 97% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $116.9k+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 97¢ means
97%chance the market gave
−3201American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97¢
- Implied odds
- 97.0%
- Size
- $116.9k
- Placed
- Apr 25, 23:02 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- AdrianCronauer
- Tx
- 0xf60cb8ce…
This wallet's graded record
6/7+12.6 pts
expected 5.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +3 ptsNo price · entry 97¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $65.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $21.0k | excluded |