← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $17.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 85% chance. It won. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$17.0k
BUY No @ 85¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet AdrianCronauer took No (buy) for $17.0k at an average 85¢. At that price the market implied a 85% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $17.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 85¢ means
85%chance the market gave
−567American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Implied odds
- 85.0%
- Size
- $17.0k
- Placed
- May 30, 05:32 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- AdrianCronauer
- Tx
- 0xe163cfd0…
This wallet's graded record
6/7+12.6 pts
expected 5.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +15 ptsNo price · entry 85¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $51.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $109.9k 4.4× usual |
excluded |