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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$409.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.3k
Last 30 days +$1,864 · $2.73M volume · 2,210 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$38.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
80%
158 closed
Wallet age · markets
361d
157 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $78.0k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $51.4k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $51.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ | $67.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $26.4k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
 Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ | $20.4k | called |
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