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CiaoBilly

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$280.1k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$63.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.12M volume · 3,774 trades · since Dec 22, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$44.1k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$18.4k
Closed-position win rate
77%
146 closed
Wallet age · markets
306d
154 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $13.1k0% 138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $17.7k0% 145d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $14.3k86% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $19.8k1% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $41.4k
2.9× usual
98% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $14.5k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $15.6k96% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $14.3k98% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $21.2k95% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ $13.7k97% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $12.2k99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $28.9k
2.0× usual
99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $11.6k96% 246d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 76¢ $11.4k24% 249d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $11.6k77% 251d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $19.0k99% 256d agoexcluded

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