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What this means. A wallet put $27.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 12% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$27.9k
SELL No @ 88¢ · 31,652 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet AdrianCronauer took No (sell) for $27.9k at an average 88¢. At that price the market implied a 12% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $27.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 88¢
- Implied odds
- 12.0%
- Size
- $27.9k
- Placed
- May 31, 11:04 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- AdrianCronauer
- Tx
- 0x4bc7e1f9…
This wallet's graded record
6/7+12.6 pts
expected 5.1 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade -12 ptsNo price · entry 88¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $51.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $109.9k 4.4× usual |
excluded |