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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did +17.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+17.4 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$314.5k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$150k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 20¢) and the edge is +9.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=5
20–40¢
100% vs 20% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$148.0k
Last 30 days +$37.4k · $9.72M volume · 858 trades · since Jan 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$149.5k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$1,514
Closed-position win rate
61%
74 closed
Wallet age · markets
290d
73 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 3 | 1.7 | +15.7 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +30.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $13.5k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $40.4k | called |
 Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 0.4¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.4¢ | $15.5k | missed |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 8.3¢ | $23.8k | missed |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 8.4¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $40.0k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $22.6k | called |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $110.8k 5.2× usual |
called |
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