← Wallets
+$6,975Yes · avg 8¢ → 13¢ · $19.0k−$2,712Yes · avg 28¢ → 21¢ · $7,481+$186No · avg 23¢ → 93.5¢ · $247−$74Yes · avg 32¢ → 8.5¢ · $27+$1No · avg 81¢ → 90¢ · $12
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +0.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.8 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$1.88M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.07M
Last 30 days −$2,929 · $12.08M volume · 10,639 trades · since Sep 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.01M
Open P&L · 38 positions
−$2.33M
Closed-position win rate
93%
27 closed
Wallet age · markets
406d
65 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.2 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 31¢ | $55.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $121.1k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | HIGH SELL Cavaliers @ 72¢ | $508.3k 9.7× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 41¢ | $43.7k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 32¢ | $18.8k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 31¢ | $49.9k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 31¢ | $193.0k 3.7× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $599.4k 11.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 33¢ | $198.0k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 30¢ | $44.9k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 38¢ | $15.9k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.8¢ | $29.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x862836…