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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -40.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-40.5 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$71.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$50.5k
Last 30 days −$0 · $3.45M volume · 5,601 trades · since Aug 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$257.6k
Open P&L · 26 positions
−$207.1k
Closed-position win rate
65%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
427d
67 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -40.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $10.4k | called |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $26.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $12.8k | called |
 Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd836c1…