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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -60.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-60.7 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$1.13M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.06M
Last 30 days +$0 · $18.37M volume · 6,438 trades · since May 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$2.06M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
55%
86 closed
Wallet age · markets
166d
85 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -73.0 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.1 | -54.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED SELL Knicks @ 69¢ | $83.2k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 89¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 98¢ | $227.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 44¢ | $62.1k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 27¢ | $27.4k | missed |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 77¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 99.7¢ | $57.8k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $134.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 95¢ | $95.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 79¢ | $82.1k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 63¢ | $121.6k | excluded |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | MED BUY New York Yankees @ 65¢ | $88.5k | excluded |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | MED BUY New York Yankees @ 53¢ | $111.1k | missed |
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