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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +49.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+49.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$106.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±50.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$163.6k
Last 30 days −$0 · $9.76M volume · 2,869 trades · since Feb 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$282.1k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$432.2k
Closed-position win rate
78%
46 closed
Wallet age · markets
241d
73 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +49.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 51¢ | $42.4k | called |
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢ | $15.2k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $37.0k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW SELL Yes @ 30¢ | $12.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc408cf…