← Wallets
+$43.0kNo · avg 50¢ → 87¢ · $100.5k+$3,558No · avg 90¢ → 97.7¢ · $42.9k+$444No · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $24.0k+$13.5kYes · avg 30¢ → 76¢ · $22.1k−$856No · avg 93.7¢ → 90¢ · $18.6k−$43.0kYes · avg 50¢ → 13¢ · $14.5k+$654No · avg 91.8¢ → 97.6¢ · $10.9k+$1,907No · avg 79¢ → 96.3¢ · $10.7k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did +12.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +10.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+12.3 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$866.9k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$23k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 78¢) and the edge is +10.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 78% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$68.6k
Last 30 days +$15.2k · $10.38M volume · 7,649 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$344.7k
Open P&L · 473 positions
+$9,585
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
268d
1280 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | +13.4 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.0 pts |
History
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