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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -22.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-22.7 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$138.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.81M volume · 7,324 trades · since Nov 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$450.5k
Open P&L · 195 positions
−$532.6k
Closed-position win rate
93%
157 closed
Wallet age · markets
335d
387 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 1.9 | -22.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 36¢ | $17.4k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $36.2k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 78¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 73¢ | $23.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5555dd…