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Weekly report card

Week 2026-20

May 11, 00:00 EDT – May 17, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
-3.5 pts
Called
79/156
Expected from price
84.4
Std. error
±3.3

In week 2026-20, 156 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 79 times; entry prices implied 84.4. Whales did no better than the price (-3.5 pts). One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports934047.4-7.9 pts
Other623936.4+4.2 pts
Economy100.7-70.3 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?HIGH BUY Yes @ 45¢ $444.5k45% tubeyou160d agocalled
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas RangersHIGH BUY Texas Rangers @ 51¢ $277.6k
2.3× usual
51% Sassy-Bucket165d agomissed
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesMED BUY Timberwolves @ 35¢ $274.5k
11.8× usual
35% beet420164d agomissed
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ $197.6k52% weatherman12160d agomissed
Pistons vs. CavaliersMED BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ $194.0k
2.4× usual
60% ChloeT1166d agocalled
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?MED SELL No @ 96.8¢ $193.6k
3.7× usual
3% 0x5bff…ffbe179d agomissed
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?MED BUY No @ 49¢ $189.6k
2.3× usual
49% BBPK160d agocalled
Pistons vs. CavaliersMED BUY Pistons @ 41¢ $172.2k
5.3× usual
41% DOKTORDOOFENSCHMIRZ165d agomissed
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?MED BUY Yes @ 45¢ $168.8k45% tubeyou160d agocalled
Pistons vs. CavaliersMED BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ $167.1k
2.1× usual
60% ChloeT1166d agocalled
Pistons vs. CavaliersMED BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ $124.0k59% 0x8a6c…0b3f165d agocalled
Avalanche vs. WildMED BUY Avalanche @ 56¢ $120.9k
2.6× usual
56% texaskid166d agocalled
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsMED BUY New York Yankees @ 53¢ $111.1k53% 0xd959…daf7161d agomissed
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)MED BUY Cavaliers @ 52¢ $106.1k
2.3× usual
52% texaskid164d agocalled
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsLOW BUY New York Mets @ 47¢ $98.5k
2.4× usual
47% bossoskil1160d agocalled
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesMED BUY Spurs @ 65¢ $96.3k65% Hugewinner164d agocalled
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ $90.0k45% tubeyou160d agocalled
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ $82.9k3% 1512vutd179d agomissed
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesLOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ $78.8k
2.6× usual
63% ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD162d agomissed
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)LOW BUY Pistons @ 48¢ $75.0k48% NiNo999163d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 96.4¢ $74.1k
2.6× usual
4% Runaround173d agomissed
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?MED BUY No @ 49¢ $73.5k49% MildredBK160d agocalled
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 36¢ $68.4k64% ponczyk179d agocalled
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ $67.7k
3.4× usual
3% cripes3179d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $67.2k
2.8× usual
92% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM177d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $61.8k
2.4× usual
5% Tigerofthehood171d agomissed
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta PlayoffsLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 72¢ $59.0k72% 0x5966…f804161d agocalled
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?LOW BUY No @ 65¢ $56.5k65% DonaldinhoTrumpito175d agocalled
Thunder vs. LakersMED BUY Thunder @ 83¢ $56.2k
2.5× usual
83% mooseborzoi LOSING165d agocalled
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 53¢ $53.0k
2.2× usual
53% Feromont163d agocalled
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLOW BUY Pistons @ 63¢ $50.0k63% 0xbd14…d62a165d agomissed
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsMED BUY New York Mets @ 47¢ $47.0k47% 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytj161d agocalled
Wild vs. AvalancheLOW BUY Avalanche @ 66¢ $46.8k66% 0xbd14…d62a164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ $45.0k5% EB99999166d agomissed
Thunder vs. LakersLOW BUY Thunder @ 83¢ $41.5k83% lIlIlIllllIIIII166d agocalled
Sabres vs. CanadiensLOW BUY Canadiens @ 57¢ $41.5k57% texaskid165d agomissed
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesMED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ $40.8k63% RegardedMoney PROVEN162d agomissed
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALOW BUY B8 @ 64¢ $40.5k64% bossoskil1165d agocalled
Pistons vs. CavaliersMED BUY Pistons @ 41¢ $40.0k41% 0xbd14…d62a166d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 30¢ $39.8k30% denizz LOSING170d agomissed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ $38.1k58% 08AF161d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $37.4k96% refzer166d agocalled
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALOW BUY paiN @ 38¢ $35.5k38% 0x5966…f804164d agomissed
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group AMED BUY B8 @ 64¢ $35.3k64% bossoskil1165d agocalled
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 34¢ $34.2k66% UnderperformingForALivin175d agocalled
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALOW BUY BC.Game Esports @ 37¢ $34.1k37% 0x5966…f804165d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 84¢ $32.7k
2.1× usual
16% AlAhmeda171d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $32.0k97% Trump2028172d agocalled
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALOW BUY BetBoom Team @ 62¢ $31.1k62% 0x2a2c…9bc1164d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $30.3k
2.2× usual
5% Egozic86174d agomissed
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 34¢ $29.6k66% UnderperformingForALivin175d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.4¢ $29.0k
2.1× usual
93% AcherontaMovebo176d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 96.6¢ $28.8k3% Runaround172d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 68¢ $28.3k68% kahe163d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $27.9k87% Arbguy167d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 93.1¢ $27.9k7% starbuck02177d agomissed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?MED BUY No @ 43¢ $27.9k43% LCBF161d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $27.8k96% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM173d agocalled
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ $27.8k62% EdZachary161d agomissed
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta PlayoffsLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 72¢ $27.3k72% NS13161d agocalled
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 35¢ $27.3k35% denizz LOSING166d agomissed
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta PlayoffsLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 82¢ $26.3k82% 0x5b10…9659160d agocalled
Avalanche vs. WildLOW BUY Wild @ 44¢ $26.1k44% Mosley1166d agomissed
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?LOW SELL No @ 55¢ $26.0k45% fffuiu160d agocalled
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?LOW BUY No @ 56¢ $25.6k56% LYnetLY160d agomissed
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesMED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ $25.1k63% ic4cream162d agomissed
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta PlayoffsLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 81¢ $25.0k81% tony1919160d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BLOW BUY Legacy @ 32¢ $24.2k32% bossoskil1164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $23.6k79% yungstalin170d agocalled
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsLOW BUY New York Yankees @ 47¢ $23.5k47% stackingsats160d agomissed
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ $23.4k52% weatherman12160d agomissed
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALOW BUY paiN @ 38¢ $23.3k38% JuicySlots164d agomissed
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALOW BUY paiN @ 37¢ $23.1k37% bossoskil1164d agomissed
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta PlayoffsLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 82¢ $22.7k82% WeirdoAAAB160d agocalled
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW SELL No @ 96.2¢ $21.9k4% olegs179d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $21.8k85% The Spirit of Ukraine>UM180d agocalled
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $21.3k3% mingerr179d agomissed
Pistons vs. CavaliersLOW BUY Pistons @ 41¢ $20.5k41% wan123166d agomissed
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $20.3k86% 0x3dbe…acc3254d agocalled
Golden Knights vs. DucksLOW BUY Ducks @ 50¢ $20.3k50% TheOnlyHuman162d agomissed
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesLOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 61¢ $20.0k61% texaskid163d agomissed
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?LOW BUY No @ 56¢ $20.0k56% superbeter007160d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $19.9k93% Trump2028178d agocalled
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta PlayoffsLOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 72¢ $19.9k72% 0xd57b…c48f161d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $19.7k75% yungstalin170d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $19.4k97% a4385166d agocalled
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesLOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ $19.1k63% LesterDiamond162d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $19.1k21% mingerr179d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $19.0k95% thoodr175d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $19.0k95% thoodr175d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $19.0k95% TheReturnOfDarthMaul177d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $18.9k86% ev1710167d agocalled
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢ $18.3k4% bitepepos179d agomissed
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesLOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ $18.3k66% 0x41f4…3eac163d agocalled
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)LOW BUY Malcolm Wellmaker @ 69¢ $18.2k69% 0x4b1f…49e6161d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ $17.8k80% dzmontana169d agocalled
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?LOW SELL No @ 70¢ $17.5k30% yumaoqiu-579234d agomissed
Pistons vs. CavaliersLOW SELL Cavaliers @ 58¢ $17.4k42% thestupidmoney165d agomissed
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW SELL No @ 96.2¢ $17.3k4% 66601179d agomissed
Sabres vs. CanadiensLOW BUY Sabres @ 43¢ $17.2k43% 0xbd14…d62a165d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.