NS13

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 9.0 wins, so it did -0.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?−$236Yes · avg 3.4¢ → 2.9¢ · $1,533 Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?−$27Yes · avg 2.7¢ → 2.6¢ · $877 Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?−$3Yes · avg 3¢ → 2.5¢ · $15

Price-adjusted edge

-0.2 pts

Called / graded

9/18

Expected from price

9.0

Flagged volume

$3.36M

Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.8 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$50k

18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 39¢) and the edge is -3.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 6% · n=1

20–40¢

25% vs 26% · n=4

40–60¢

57% vs 54% · n=7

60–80¢

67% vs 68% · n=6

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$269.2k

Last 30 days −$173.9k · $83.48M volume · 26,254 trades · since May 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Trail Blazers vs. Kings	LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 63¢	$14.7k	63%	3h ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Celtics	LOW BUY Knicks @ 12¢	$12.4k	12%	6h ago	excluded
Pistons vs. Heat	LOW BUY Heat @ 20¢	$10.8k	20%	6h ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Celtics	LOW BUY Knicks @ 44¢	$15.2k	44%	9h ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 56¢	$10.5k	56%	1d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. 76ers	MED SELL 76ers @ 28¢	$30.7k	72%	1d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Nuggets @ 27¢	$21.6k	27%	1d ago	missed
Cavaliers vs. 76ers	LOW BUY 76ers @ 56¢	$19.4k	56%	1d ago	called
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-22?	LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢	$13.2k	42%	1d ago	excluded
Thunder vs. Spurs	MED BUY Spurs @ 15¢	$23.9k	15%	3d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 47¢	$13.7k	47%	3d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Knicks	MED BUY 76ers @ 39¢	$27.2k	39%	3d ago	called
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Thunder @ 52¢	$22.3k	52%	3d ago	called
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 39¢	$21.3k	39%	9d ago	called
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 58¢	$19.0k	58%	13d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 62¢	$17.0k	62%	14d ago	excluded
Eagles vs. Bears	LOW BUY Eagles @ 39¢	$17.9k	39%	25d ago	excluded
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Matteo Martineau	LOW BUY Matteo Martineau @ 51¢	$17.2k	51%	25d ago	excluded
Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Gabriela Ruse	MED BUY Anna Bondar @ 61¢	$30.6k	61%	28d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves	LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 28¢	$12.7k	28%	31d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves	LOW BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 40¢	$34.1k	40%	31d ago	excluded
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria	LOW BUY Lucio Ratti @ 65¢	$12.3k	65%	31d ago	excluded
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves	MED BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 31¢	$28.2k	31%	31d ago	called
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees	LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 42¢	$50.3k 2.4× usual	42%	31d ago	excluded
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 60¢	$17.3k	60%	34d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	LOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 25¢	$12.2k	25%	34d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 58¢	$14.8k	58%	35d ago	called
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels	LOW BUY Minnesota Twins @ 51¢	$27.1k	51%	36d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	LOW BUY NRG @ 36¢	$12.2k	36%	36d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 56¢	$14.8k	56%	37d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 54¢	$10.1k	54%	37d ago	called
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 54¢	$24.6k	54%	37d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 64¢	$70.4k 3.4× usual	64%	47d ago	called
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	LOW BUY T1 @ 47¢	$11.4k	47%	51d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 23¢	$11.2k	23%	51d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	MED BUY Team Falcons @ 27¢	$21.0k	27%	53d ago	excluded
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade	MED SELL Andres Andrade @ 47¢	$57.0k 2.7× usual	53%	55d ago	excluded
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade	LOW BUY Andres Andrade @ 60¢	$16.5k	60%	55d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 66¢	$12.3k	66%	55d ago	excluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29?	LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢	$16.4k	64%	56d ago	missed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$12.8k	59%	56d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 31¢	$15.9k	69%	57d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	MED BUY Team Falcons @ 74¢	$112.8k 5.4× usual	74%	57d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner	MED BUY Team Falcons @ 77¢	$69.5k 3.3× usual	77%	57d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY Legacy @ 72¢	$38.4k	72%	57d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 53¢	$56.2k 2.7× usual	53%	58d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 89¢	$38.3k	89%	61d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 59¢	$21.3k	59%	62d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY Vitality @ 55¢	$28.6k	55%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	MED BUY Vitality @ 59¢	$33.5k	59%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	MED BUY Legacy @ 30¢	$30.0k	30%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY Spirit @ 43¢	$78.9k 3.8× usual	43%	63d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 45¢	$15.2k	45%	64d ago	called
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY FURIA @ 58¢	$15.5k	58%	64d ago	excluded
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 75¢	$12.9k	75%	69d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	MED SELL FUT Esports @ 62¢	$45.0k 2.1× usual	38%	70d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 59¢	$15.3k	59%	70d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 36¢	$21.1k	36%	70d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY 100 Thieves @ 12¢	$13.3k	12%	72d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B	LOW BUY Astralis @ 54¢	$15.3k	54%	72d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D	LOW BUY TheMongolz @ 55¢	$16.6k	55%	72d ago	excluded
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 75¢	$20.7k	25%	76d ago	excluded
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	MED BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 53¢	$33.1k	53%	76d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 50¢	$11.8k	50%	79d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	LOW SELL Astralis @ 76¢	$20.0k	24%	84d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	LOW BUY Astralis @ 57¢	$11.0k	57%	84d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED SELL Spain @ 90.7¢	$66.4k 3.2× usual	9%	96d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 68¢	$47.1k 2.2× usual	68%	96d ago	excluded
France vs. England: Team to Win	MED SELL England @ 63¢	$52.4k 2.5× usual	37%	97d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢	$53.8k 2.6× usual	41%	97d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 40¢	$70.7k 3.4× usual	60%	97d ago	called
France vs. England: Team to Win	MED SELL England @ 36¢	$46.8k 2.2× usual	64%	99d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢	$51.4k 2.5× usual	58%	99d ago	called
France vs. England: Team to Win	MED BUY England @ 36¢	$106.1k 5.1× usual	36%	99d ago	called
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW SELL Argentina @ 45¢	$20.8k	55%	100d ago	excluded
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY France @ 33¢	$11.2k	33%	101d ago	excluded
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY France @ 57¢	$20.6k	57%	101d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 18¢	$26.9k	18%	101d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢	$10.6k	18%	103d ago	missed
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner	LOW SELL Bilibili Gaming @ 82¢	$18.0k	18%	103d ago	excluded
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner	LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 62¢	$22.2k	62%	103d ago	excluded
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	LOW BUY England @ 68¢	$20.6k	68%	104d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢	$42.7k 2.0× usual	75%	104d ago	called
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 4 Winner	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 66¢	$24.6k	66%	104d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winner	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 79¢	$16.7k	79%	104d ago	excluded
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY LYON @ 86¢	$10.7k	86%	105d ago	excluded
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Over @ 63¢	$18.2k	63%	106d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢	$16.9k	19%	107d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢	$15.8k	19%	107d ago	missed
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 6¢	$11.7k	6%	107d ago	missed
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	MED SELL Argentina @ 78¢	$33.4k	22%	108d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 33¢	$55.2k 2.6× usual	33%	108d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢	$44.6k 2.1× usual	86%	108d ago	called
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Over @ 76¢	$21.0k	76%	108d ago	called
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	LOW BUY United States @ 30¢	$17.5k	30%	109d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢	$14.6k	53%	124d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 71¢	$19.7k	71%	132d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	MED SELL Team Falcons @ 77¢	$43.2k 2.1× usual	23%	132d ago	missed
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW SELL Knicks @ 35¢	$15.7k	65%	133d ago	missed
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Knicks @ 36¢	$34.3k	36%	133d ago	called
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 55¢	$27.2k	55%	133d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW SELL PARIVISION @ 83¢	$14.5k	17%	133d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 57¢	$40.8k	57%	134d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Spurs @ 47¢	$24.5k	47%	136d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW SELL Spurs @ 42¢	$23.3k	58%	137d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW SELL Spurs @ 62¢	$12.4k	38%	137d ago	excluded
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	LOW BUY No @ 22¢	$21.9k	22%	139d ago	missed
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢	$22.1k	22%	139d ago	missed
Knicks vs. Spurs	MED SELL Knicks @ 49¢	$42.8k 2.0× usual	51%	140d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Knicks @ 23¢	$11.5k	23%	140d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Spurs	MED BUY Knicks @ 33¢	$33.0k	33%	140d ago	called
Knicks vs. Spurs	MED SELL Knicks @ 41¢	$60.2k 2.9× usual	59%	142d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Spurs	MED BUY Knicks @ 23¢	$24.0k	23%	142d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Knicks @ 37¢	$37.0k	37%	143d ago	called
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Thunder @ 45¢	$13.5k	55%	146d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	MED SELL Spurs @ 58¢	$43.3k 2.1× usual	42%	146d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Spurs @ 43¢	$21.5k	43%	147d ago	called
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW SELL Thunder @ 29¢	$24.0k	71%	148d ago	excluded
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢	$36.9k	41%	148d ago	missed
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢	$13.6k	68%	157d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 38¢	$11.0k	38%	159d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 37¢	$18.9k	37%	159d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 72¢	$27.3k	72%	160d ago	called

NS13

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