0x41f4…3eac

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +34.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+34.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$190.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$120.5k

Last 30 days +$0 · $1.20M volume · 827 trades · since May 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$59.4k

Open P&L · 14 positions

−$176.1k

Closed-position win rate

95%

19 closed

Wallet age · markets

167d

32 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.7	+34.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Spurs @ 28¢	$24.0k	72%	150d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Spurs @ 38¢	$12.8k	38%	152d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Thunder	MED BUY Spurs @ 38¢	$47.1k 2.5× usual	38%	152d ago	missed
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Thunder @ 43¢	$23.1k	43%	152d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	LOW SELL Knicks @ 62¢	$19.0k	38%	153d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	LOW BUY Knicks @ 45¢	$10.3k	45%	154d ago	called
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	LOW SELL Pistons @ 58¢	$22.8k	42%	161d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢	$18.3k	66%	162d ago	called
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	LOW BUY Pistons @ 39¢	$13.0k	39%	162d ago	called

Spurs vs. Thunderexcluded

SELL Spurs @ 28¢$24.0k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 150d ago

Spurs vs. Thundermissed

BUY Spurs @ 38¢$12.8k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 152d ago

Spurs vs. Thundermissed

BUY Spurs @ 38¢$47.1k

MED 0x41f4…3eac · 152d ago

Thunder vs. Spursexcluded

BUY Thunder @ 43¢$23.1k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 152d ago

Knicks vs. Cavaliersexcluded

SELL Knicks @ 62¢$19.0k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 153d ago

Knicks vs. Cavalierscalled

BUY Knicks @ 45¢$10.3k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 154d ago

Pistons vs. Cavaliersexcluded

SELL Pistons @ 58¢$22.8k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 161d ago

Spurs vs. Timberwolvescalled

BUY Spurs @ 66¢$18.3k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 162d ago

Pistons vs. Cavalierscalled

BUY Pistons @ 39¢$13.0k

LOW 0x41f4…3eac · 162d ago

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