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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -10.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-10.0 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$3.86M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$165k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? at 59¢) and the edge is -20.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 59% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=2
80–100¢
0% vs 84% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.50M
Last 30 days +$0 · $28.66M volume · 10,079 trades · since May 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7.37M
Open P&L · 67 positions
−$3.83M
Closed-position win rate
90%
124 closed
Wallet age · markets
176d
190 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.6 | -10.0 pts |
History
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