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+$454No · avg 75¢ → 82¢ · $5,698+$898Yes · avg 78¢ → 94.5¢ · $5,143 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$975Yes · avg 50¢ → 82¢ · $2,475−$1,108Yes · avg 25¢ → 3.7¢ · $192−$809Yes · avg 52¢ → 10¢ · $191
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did +16.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+16.2 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$73.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,880
Last 30 days +$517 · $594.3k volume · 151 trades · since Apr 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$33.2k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$23.0k
Closed-position win rate
79%
48 closed
Wallet age · markets
194d
61 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.4 | +16.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $15.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $12.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $18.9k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $13.2k | called |
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