weatherman12

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -52.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-52.0 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$8.94M

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$1.83M

Last 30 days +$0 · $45.85M volume · 9,898 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$9.76M

Open P&L · 20 positions

−$7.85M

Closed-position win rate

95%

22 closed

Wallet age · markets

164d

41 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	0	1.0	-52.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	HIGH BUY No @ 43¢	$472.1k	43%	104d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	HIGH BUY No @ 51¢	$386.5k	51%	104d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	HIGH BUY No @ 44¢	$272.8k	44%	105d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢	$858.9k	61%	106d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 62¢	$1.65M 3.7× usual	62%	122d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 63¢	$506.9k	63%	129d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	HIGH BUY No @ 34¢	$1.17M 2.6× usual	34%	129d ago	missed
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	HIGH BUY Iraq @ 69¢	$385.5k	69%	129d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	HIGH BUY No @ 34¢	$338.4k	34%	129d ago	excluded
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	MED BUY No @ 49¢	$418.3k	49%	131d ago	excluded
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 58¢	$757.4k	58%	153d ago	excluded
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢	$23.4k	52%	160d ago	missed
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$197.6k	52%	160d ago	missed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 75¢	$1.50M 3.4× usual	75%	163d ago	excluded

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?excluded

BUY No @ 43¢$472.1k

HIGH weatherman12 · 104d ago

Will England win on 2026-07-11?excluded

BUY No @ 51¢$386.5k

HIGH weatherman12 · 104d ago

Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?excluded

BUY No @ 44¢$272.8k

HIGH weatherman12 · 105d ago

Will France win on 2026-07-09?excluded

BUY Yes @ 61¢$858.9k

HIGH weatherman12 · 106d ago

Will England win on 2026-06-23?excluded

BUY Yes @ 62¢$1.65M

HIGH weatherman12 · 122d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?excluded

BUY Yes @ 63¢$506.9k

HIGH weatherman12 · 129d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?missed

BUY No @ 34¢$1.17M

HIGH weatherman12 · 129d ago

Spread: Norway (-2.5)excluded

BUY Iraq @ 69¢$385.5k

HIGH weatherman12 · 129d ago

Will France win on 2026-06-16?excluded

BUY No @ 34¢$338.4k

HIGH weatherman12 · 129d ago

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?excluded

BUY No @ 49¢$418.3k

MED weatherman12 · 131d ago

Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?excluded

BUY Yes @ 58¢$757.4k

HIGH weatherman12 · 153d ago

Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?missed

BUY Yes @ 52¢$23.4k

LOW weatherman12 · 160d ago

Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?missed

BUY Yes @ 52¢$197.6k

MED weatherman12 · 160d ago

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?excluded

BUY Yes @ 75¢$1.50M

HIGH weatherman12 · 163d ago

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