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What this means. A wallet put $1.50M on Yes, at a price that gave it a 75% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$1.50M
BUY Yes @ 75¢ · 1,986,473 shares in 14 fills
Size ≥ $250k14 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)3.4× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet weatherman12 took Yes (buy) for $1.50M at an average 75¢. At that price the market implied a 75% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $1.50M+3
14 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 75¢ means
75%chance the market gave
−307American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 75¢
- Implied odds
- 75.5%
- As American odds
- −307 no vig
- Size
- $1.50M
- Placed
- May 13, 14:57 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 21, 11:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- weatherman12
- Tx
- 0x4e3c8d0f…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-52.0 pts
expected 1.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY No @ 25¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY No @ 25¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | MED BUY No @ 25¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $3.09M 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY No @ 26¢ | $10.4k | excluded |